With the NCAA men’s basketball Final Four approaching this weekend, I thought I would re-examine an earlier post on the IJSF blog by Brad Humphreys. He detailed the bracket picks of University of Colorado political scientist Scott Adler, who filled out winners according to which men’s basketball programs had the highest amount of spending, using statistics from The Equity in Athletics Data Analysis website.
Interestingly enough, Adler’s bracket correctly picked two of the four Final Four teams, which is two more than the U.S. President and most other people got correct when filling out their brackets. Based on the highest amount of spending, Adler’s bracket had Duke, Marquette, Michigan State, and Xavier in the Final Four. The teams actually competing this weekend in Indianapolis are Duke, Michigan State, Butler, and West Virginia.
In Adler’s bracket, West Virginia advanced to the Sweet 16 and Butler failed to get past a first-round matchup with UTEP. Of the other two Final Four picks based on Adler’s method, Xavier was narrowly eliminated in the Sweet 16 and Marquette was upset in the opening round.
So who will play in the national championship game? According to Adler’s method, Duke and Michigan State will meet on the hardwood, with the Blue Devils claiming their fourth national title.
You can click on the image below to see Adler’s complete bracket.
I’m wondering if this study and statistics database will become a future factor for serious bracketologists (if not already), although science can never predict the heart of a team.