Berri Explains Research on NFL Draft and Quarterback Performance

An intellectual spat recently broke out in the New York Times and spilled over into the blogsphere, and one of the wedges of division is a recently published journal article by a pair of distinguished sport economists.

The work of David Berri, an associate professor of economics at Southern Utah University, and Rob Simmons, a senior lecturer of economics at Lancaster University and the editor of the International Journal of Sport Finance (IJSF), which is published by Fitness Information Technology (FiT), regarding quarterbacks’ NFL draft position and their subsequent performance was pulled into a dispute between journalist Malcolm Gladwell and Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker. While they went back and forth in print, and later on the web, I was interested more in the analysis of Berri and Simmons’ research than the playground-like spat between Gladwell and Pinker (and later journalist Steven Sailor).

What I’d like to provide in this forum is not another medium to prolong the dispute but rather a chance for the Berri and Simmons research to be further examined. In order to do so, FiT contacted Berri, who has had four articles published in IJSF and who used his blog to defend and clarify his research, to ask him some questions about his and Simmons’ journal article titled “Catching a Draft: On the Process of Selecting Quarterbacks in the National Football League Amateur Draft,” which was published in a recent issue of the Journal of Productivity Analysis.

Q: For those who haven’t read the article, can you give them a brief summary of the research?

Berri: In this paper, Rob and I are examining the NFL draft. The motivation behind this institution is that league parity will be enhanced if the worst teams in the league are given access to the best amateur talent. But can NFL teams identify the best amateur talent? From previous research we had already seen that quarterbacks in the NFL are very inconsistent across time. In other words, identifying the best NFL quarterbacks in the future—even when you have already seen the quarterbacks in the NFL—is difficult.

With respect to the NFL draft the problem is even harder to solve. College football isn’t the same as the NFL. So we shouldn’t be surprised that the drafting of quarterbacks is difficult. Here is what we specifically found:

1. We did find several factors that predict where a quarterback will get drafted. Specifically, we find that taller, faster, and smarter (i.e., better Wonderlic scores) quarterbacks get drafted first.

2. The factors that predict draft performance, though, don’t predict NFL performance.

3. Given this result, we shouldn’t be surprised that where a quarterback is drafted doesn’t predict how well a quarterback will perform in the NFL.

Q: In the conclusion you and Simmons write:

“Our analysis revealed that there was a relationship between aggregate performance and where a player was chosen. But when we looked at per play performance, the relationship between production and draft position was quite weak. In contrast, a much stronger relationship existed between how many plays a quarterback ran and where he was selected. In sum, draft position can get a quarterback on the field. But quarterbacks taken higher do not appear to perform any better.”

I think it’s that last sentence that has gotten a few people a little stirred up. Can you clarify your position?

Berri: I’m not sure there is much to clarify. Per play performance is not related to where a quarterback is taken in the draft. We looked at a host of statistics. And we looked at various points in a quarterback’s career. Draft position doesn’t seem to predict completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, touchdowns per pass attempt, interceptions per pass attempt, the NFL’s quarterback rating, or Wins Produced per 100 plays (or any other per play metric from the Wages of Wins).

Q: In the article you also examine the factors that determine where a quarterback is selected in the draft. The article stated that too much emphasis is placed on NFL Combine measurables like height, 40-yard dash time, and the Wonderlic score, which you claim aren’t proven predictors of future performance. Based on your research, what are one or two things the NFL should focus on more closely, such as, for example, completion percentage, when examining where to select a quarterback in the draft?

Berri: Completion percentage in college is correlated with NFL completion percentage. But we did not find that completion percentage predicts where a quarterback is selected in the NFL draft. Furthermore, the link between completion percentage in college and the NFL—although statistically significant—is not very strong.

Other than completion percentage, there isn’t much that we were able to see that could predict future performance. The point of the article is not that we can do better. The point is that with respect to quarterbacks, the NFL draft doesn’t seem to serve its purpose.

Q: I suspect having your article discussed in the New York Times has brought quite a bit of attention to the research you and Simmons conducted. You have written columns for the New York Times in the past, but have  you been involved in any other published research in sport economics/finance that has drawn any similar type of reaction or attention?

Berri: The idea that scoring is over-valued in the NBA has attracted a fair amount of attention. Also, the finding that good-looking quarterbacks get paid more has also been noted in the media.

NCAA Wins in Long Run with Legal Settlements

An interesting guest column was published in the most recent issue of SportsBusiness Journal by a couple of prominent sport management scholars regarding the NCAA and its ability to evade court rulings like Adrian Peterson evading a linebacker.

Mark Nagel and Richard Southall, co-authors of the forthcoming second edition of Sport Facility Management: Organizing Events and Mitigating Risks, published by Fitness Information Technology (FiT), wrote about some recent settlement agreements by the NCAA. In the Nov. 30-Dec. 6, 2009, issue of SBJ, they describe how the NCAA has successfully implemented a legal “four-corners offense,” ending lawsuits with settlements and thus eliminating the potential for a judge or jury to force the NCAA to change portions of the model it uses to run the most powerful organization in college athletics.

Nagel and Southall primarily detailed the NCAA’s settlement agreement with former Oklahoma State pitcher Andy Oliver, who received $750,000 from the NCAA in October, just two weeks before their trial was scheduled to go to a jury trial. Oliver was initially suspended by the NCAA in 2008 because in 2006 his adviser had contact with the Minnesota Twins, which drafted him out of high school.

Oliver certainly shouldn’t be blamed for settling the case out of court, because $750,000 is a big figure, although it’s rather small compared to the NCAA’s 2008 income believed to be in the neighborhood of $614 million. As Nagel, an associate professor of sport and entertainment management at the University of South Carolina, and Southall, an assistant professor in exercise and sport science at the University of North Carolina, write:

Within this landscape it remains to be seen whether there is a potential plaintiff sitting on a metaphorical legal bench who cannot be induced to play the NCAA settlement game. Most of the business-related cases against the NCAA have been settled because plaintiffs have had vested financial interest in settling rather than engaging in protracted legal battles whose outcomes were not assured. However, if this potential plaintiff does not need to protect a future career and is already financially secure, then the NCAA may be unable to hold the ball indefinitely.

Nagel and Southall conclude their guest column by stating that, “Perhaps Ed O’Bannon or Sam Keller is such a plaintiff …”

The "EA Sports" Sam Keller

That leads to a law column written by Anita M. Moorman, JD, an associate professor of sport administration at the University of Louisville, and Marion E. Hambrick, a doctoral candidate in the same program, in the September 2009 issue of FiT’s Sport Marketing Quarterly. They write about three pending court cases involving the business activity of licensing, two of which involve O’Bannon and Keller, who have received plenty of press for their lawsuits against the NCAA.

O’Bannon’s case filed against the NCAA and Collegiate Licensing Company (CLC) focuses on former student-athletes and the fact that the NCAA and third-party commercial entities, particularly the CLC, have benefited financially from merchandise sales while the former athletes have been prevented from receiving compensation.

NFL Tells Captain Morgan to Walk the Plank

When Philadelphia Eagles’ tight end Brent Celek scored a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys earlier this month, his end zone celebration set off a marketing firestorm.

Celek struck a “Captain Morgan” pose because the rum company was offering to donate $10,000 to the Gridiron Greats Assistance Fund every time a player performed the pose after scoring a TD. But the NFL immediately stepped in and threatened a “significant” penalty to any future player that participates in the now short-lived Captain Morgan campaign.
NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told Yahoo! Sports: “A company can’t pay a player to somehow promote it’s product on the field.”

Fitness Information Technology contacted Dr. David Stotlar, a professor of sport marketing at the University of Northern Colorado, to get his perspective on the issue. Stotlar authors Developing Successful Sport Marketing Plans, 3rd Edition, Developing Successful Sport Sponsorship Plans, 3rd Edition, and is a co-author of Fundamentals of Sport Marketing, 3rd Edition.

Q: Would this be a textbook definition of ambush marketing, as the NFL labeled it in its response?

Stotlar: Clearly an example of ambush marketing. The worst thing is that they are enlisting others to help them achieve that fraud.

Q: What are your thoughts about the NFL’s reaction to the Captain Morgan campaign?

Stotlar: I think it’s a fitting reaction. If you stop the players from participating, you can take away the stage. Ambush marketing is completely out of control. If a company wants to contribute to NFL Charities, there is an appropriate way to do that.

Q: Even though the NFL is squashing this campaign, would you say it has been a success in terms of bringing exposure to Captain Morgan?

Stotlar: Not so much. Some say that any publicity is a good thing, but unethical behavior seldom has lasting positive effects.

Q: Another campaign that does have the NFL’s blessing and has been very popular the last couple of years is the Coors Light mock press conference commercials. How would you rate the success and popularity of this marketing campaign?

Stotlar: I think the novelty is wearing off. They were funny and interesting in the beginning, but it’s getting a little old and predictable.

Sport Marketing Association Honors WVU College of Physical Activity and Sport Sciences Faculty Member with Lifetime Service Award

Morgantown, W.Va. [Nov. 6, 2009] Dr. Dallas Branch, associate professor of the Sport Management program at West Virginia University’s College of Physical Activity and Sport Sciences (WVU – CPASS), was presented with a Lifetime Service Award by the Sport Marketing Association (SMA) and Fitness Information Technology (FiT) for his service and dedication to the Sport Marketing Quarterly (SMQ).

Dr. Dallas Branch with Lifetime Achievement Award from SMA and FiT

Shortly after beginning his teaching career at WVU, Branch started SMQ in 1992 to advance the study and practice of sport marketing. He was the journal’s first editor and served on its editorial board for nearly 18 years.  Branch was also the co-founder of the SMA, which was established in 2002 to provide a national forum for sport marketing and management education and professionals working in the industry.

“The Sport Marketing Quarterly was created to bridge the gap between sport sciences academicians and professionals working in the sport marketing field,” said Branch, who received his award at the annual SMA conference in Cleveland on October 29. “I have enjoyed serving on the editorial review board and watching the journal grow with the support of the SMA.”

Dr. Nancy Lough, associate professor and director of the Center for Sports Education at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and the journal’s next editor, has served on the editorial review board with Branch for nine years. Her goal as the incoming editor is to “honor Branch’s leadership and continue to provide a publication that serves as a legacy to his years of service.”

“Dr. Branch pursued the vision to create one publication to serve both academicians and sport marketing practitioners. Sport Marketing Quarterly has continued to strive toward fulfillment of the original vision, through incorporation of unique aspects such as a case study section and professional profile in each issue to compliment the cutting edge research produced by sport marketing scholars from around the world,” said Lough.

Sport Marketing Quarterly - Volume 18 - Number 3 - 2009

According to Lough, SMQ maintains subscriptions in 25 countries, in addition to the United States, and every member of SMA receives a subscription to SMQ.

Past and current SMA executive board members have served on the editorial review board and published in SMQ. In honor of Dr. Branch and the editors who served after him, the editor of the journal now maintains an official position on the SMA executive board.

Published by FiT of the International Center for Performance Excellence (ICPE) at WVU, the Sport Marketing Quarterly is available to the general public in print and online subscriptions.

For more information about the Sport Marketing Quarterly, visit www.fitinfotech.com. Information about the SMA is available at www.sportmarketingassociation.com.

Panel of Pro Sports Experts Offers Insight, Opinion

A group of proverbial heavyweights in the sport industry gathered at West Virginia University Wednesday night to share their insight, opinions, and plenty of jokes during “The Business of Sports” discussion.

The distinguished lecture series featured Ken Kendrick, managing general partner of the Arizona Diamondbacks; Bob Nutting, principal owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates; Oliver Luck, president and general manager of the Houston Dynamo; and Sam Huff, a Hall of Fame linebacker and current radio broadcaster for the Washington Redskins. It was a great opportunity to hear the foursome’s viewpoints on a variety of timely topics and their responses to questions were, at times, as humorous as they were insightful.

Below are some of their thoughts on a variety of topics that were discussed.

• On public financing of stadiums

There has been plenty of research, much of which has been published in the International Journal of Sport Finance, regarding the benefits and/or drawbacks of public financing for construction of new stadiums and arenas. All three panelists associated with professional teams claimed that there were long-term benefits for communities that receive a new professional sports facility, despite many sports economists who claim otherwise. Both MLB owners on the panel also happen to own teams that received public financing to help fund stadium construction projects.

Pittsburgh footed a large portion ($174 million) of the bill for the Pirates’ new PNC Park, which opened in 2002 but was five years prior to Nutting’s ownership. Kendrick’s Diamondbacks and their retractable roof stadium (Chase Field Ballpark) cost taxpayers approximately $238 million.

“It’s difficult to talk about public funding of stadiums during these economic times,” Kendrick admitted. “Economic impact studies show there can be a return on investment. Over time, there is tremendous tax revenue and jobs are created and I think that model still works. But having said that, in this time (of economic struggles) I think public funds should be used other ways.”

Luck was previously the CEO of the Harris County-Houston Sports Authority, which oversaw the construction and financing of Houston’s three new professional sports venues—the Astros’ Minute Maid Park, the Rockets’ and Comets’ Toyota Center, and the Texans’ Reliant Stadium.

“The city of Houston took on approximately $1 billion in municipal debt to build three new venues,” Luck said. “All three were up for a public vote and all narrowly passed and they were funded by hotel and rental car taxes. Because of those new venues, Houston has been chosen to host the Super Bowl (2004), Final Four (2011 and 2016), MLB all-star game (2004), NBA all-star game (2006), and (in 2010) the MLS all-star game and that’s important for a city that was down on its luck after the Oilers left Houston. It helped to rejuvenate the urban core of Houston.”

• On small- and mid-market teams competing in Major League Baseball

Both Nutting and Kendrick consider themselves owners of mid-market clubs, although based on the most recent MLB revenue reports the Diamondbacks are a few rungs above the Pirates. The biggest limitation, according to Kendrick, was that small- and mid-market teams are less able to successfully cope with injuries to key players. If they retain All-Star caliber players, often much of the team’s salary is invested in that one player.

The Diamondbacks, winners of the 2001 World Series in a dramatic Game 7, 9th inning rally to defeat the New York Yankees, have had some very talented players on their roster. In fact, five of the past 10 National League Cy Young Award winners played for Arizona (Randy Johnson in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002, and Brandon Webb in 2006). Arizona made it to the playoffs in 2007 and finished second in the NL West in 2008 but this past season finished in last place in its division due in large part to an opening-day injury to Webb.

“This year our top pitcher, who had won the Cy Young, was injured in the first game of the year and he missed the rest of the season,” Kendrick said. “That was a devastating injury for us to try to overcome.

“It would be nice to have unlimited money like the New York Yankees. But I think that (Arizona’s) competitive model is a very good one and, frankly, for me it’s a lot of fun to beat teams like (the Yankees).”

Athletes Need to Tweet with Caution

It’s nearing a point in time when coaches or executives of a sports franchise or team must consider implementing a policy with their players regarding Twitter. The list of players who have embarrassed themselves and/or their team/organization with their tweets seems to be growing daily.

The most recent offender is Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson, who’s no stranger to controversy. Following Sunday’s loss to the San Diego Chargers that dropped the Chiefs’s record to 1-6, Johnson posted a series of messages on his Twitter account criticizing the credentials of Kansas City first-year head coach Todd Haley.

According to a report in the Kansas City Star, one of Johnson’s tweets read: “My father played for the coach from ‘rememeber the titans’. Our coach played golf. My father played for redskins briefley. Our coach. Nuthn.”

Other players from other sports leagues and university athletic teams have also posted tweets they ultimately regretted. Some have criticized fans, some have criticized opposing players, and some, like Johnson, have criticized coaches.

Last month, Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach actually banned his players from having Twitter pages. The mandate came one day after one of his players tweeted: “Wondering why I’m still in this meeting room when the head coach can’t be on time to his on[sic] meeting.”

Leach’s Twitter ban may seem a bit drastic, but at least opponents of the Red Raiders won’t find any inside information on them from Twitter. Wisconsin football coach Bret Bielema admitted earlier this season that his staff actually scours upcoming opponents’ Twitter pages while scouting the team.

While banning players from using Twitter is probably a bit of an overreaction, it would be wise for teams and organizations to put the players through a Twitter PR session. Players need to understand there are ramifications from their tweets and if players treated their tweets as though they were speaking directly to the media—I’ve noticed the media has begun using players’ Twitter accounts as a source of information more frequently—they will be less likely to have their names added to the growing list of players that commit Twitter fouls.

Perhaps Nick Barnett said it best. The Green Bay Packers linebacker said he would close his Twitter account (although he continues to tweet) after posting an offensive message to fans. The lesson he learned: he acknowledged that he often gets emotional and he now realizes that “everything is public” on Twitter.

Celebrate Wooden as a Teacher on His 99th Birthday

On this day when John Wooden celebrates his 99th birthday, you can browse the Internet and read many stories exalting his amazing accomplishments in basketball. Wooden is widely regarded as the greatest coach of all time—in any sport. Sports Illustrated and ESPN named him the greatest coach of the 20th century, and with good reason. While at UCLA, he led the Bruins to 10 NCAA titles, including seven consecutive championships. At one point during his tenure, UCLA had an 88-game winning streak that spanned four seasons. Wooden retired on top, winning his 10th national championship in his final game in 1975.

As a player at Purdue University, Wooden achieved equal success. He was a consensus three-time All-American from 1930-32 and led the Boilermakers to the 1932 national championship. Later, he became the first person ever to be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame as both a player (1961) and a coach (1973).

But while many consider Wooden the greatest coach of all time, he has always considered himself more of a teacher than a coach. Consider the comments Wooden made when speaking to former UCLA player Swen Nater (known at the time as Bill Walton’s backup) and current UCLA professor Ronald Gallimore, co-authors of You Haven’t Taught Until They Have Learned: John Wooden’s Teaching Principles and Practices, published by Fitness Information Technology.

“I always considered myself a teacher rather than just a coach,” Wooden said. “Everyone, everyone is a teacher. Everyone is a teacher to someone; maybe it’s your children, maybe it’s a neighbor, maybe it’s someone under your supervision in some other way, and in one way or another you’re teaching them by your actions.” (pp. xv-xvi)

Because of his mastery of coaching and success on the court, years ago Wooden was labeled as the “Wizard of Westwood,” but he is quick to say, “I’m no wizard, I’m a teacher.”

Chicago Better Off Economically Without 2016 Olympics

Chicago recently lost its much-publicized (and politicized) bid for the 2016 Summer Olympics. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced the destination Oct. 2, selecting Rio de Janeiro over Madrid, Tokyo, and Illinois’ Windy City. Days prior to the final vote, President Barack Obama, first lady Michelle Obama, and media icon Oprah Winfrey all attempted to use their clout in Copenhagen to influence IOC voters as Chicago made its final pitch.

While many were disappointed that Chicago didn’t win its bid—the biggest disappointment came from the fact that Chicago was eliminated in the first round of voting—from an economic standpoint, it could be argued that Chicago is actually better off not hosting the Olympics.

Past Summer Olympic Games on American soil, such as Los Angeles (1984) and Atlanta (1996), have been financially successful, but there’s no guarantee that the city of Chicago would have received a monetary boost. Building the necessary infrastructure to host the various sporting events has proven extremely costly for some host cities, with a long list of them having suffered long-term economic difficulties due to spending that, in some instances, surpassed initial budgets by 10 times.

In order to gain more insight into how Chicago’s economic future could have been affected by hosting the 2016 Olympics, Fitness Information Technology (FIT) contacted Dr. Brad Humphreys. An associate editor of FIT’s International Journal of Sport Finance and one of the leading experts in Olympic budgets and stadium finance, Humphreys previously was an associate professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in the Department of Recreation, Sport and Tourism and is now chair in the Economics of Gaming at the University of Alberta.

Q: Having worked in the state of Illinois, you probably have a good feel for how Chicago would have done as a host city for the 2016 Summer Olympics. How do you think Chicago would have performed?

Humphreys: I’m sure they would have done an excellent job hosting the Games. Chicago is a great city, and it would have been a fantastic location. I think most hosts do a great job—the big issue is how much does it cost.

Q: Speaking of cost, from strictly an economic point of view, do you believe Chicago is actually better off not having won its bid for the Olympics?

Humphreys: Absolutely. There is little evidence that hosting the Games provides tangible economic benefits to the host community. All public spending for hosting the Games has an opportunity cost—Chicago now has billions to spend on other badly needed public projects. In addition, hosting the Games imposes a lot of intangible costs on residents, in the form of inconvenience (increased traffic during the games, all the disruption associated with construction projects, etc.) and residents of Chicago now escape those costs. A lot of residents of Atlanta left town during the Games in 1996.

Leading Expert Comments on Case of Caster Semenya

Jamaica’s Usain Bolt shattered world records en route to gold medals in the 100 meters (9.69 seconds) and 200 (19.19) this summer at the track and field world championships in Berlin. But headlines focused more on the sex of a South African athlete than the records broken and medals won.

Caster Semenya easily outpaced the competition in the women’s 800 meter finals, besting the silver medalist by an eye-opening 2.45 seconds. But even before her gold medal effort, there were accusations that Semenya wasn’t a female, due not only to her impressive times in the 800 but also her muscular build and tone of her voice. The speculation was so rampant, in fact, that the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) ordered gender tests to be conducted even prior to the world championships to answer the questions about Semenya.

Recently, an Australian newspaper reported that the results of the gender test revealed that Semenya, who is 18-years old, has both female and male sexual organs. To date, the IAAF has neither confirmed nor denied the report, saying only that the results were in and a decision in the case would most likely be made in November.

The story raises several questions, and to answer many of them, Fitness Information Technology (FIT) contacted Dr. Susan Bandy, one of the leading scholars on transgendered and transsexual athletes. Bandy, a visiting assistant professor at The Ohio State University, was an invited distinguished lecturer in the spring by West Virginia University’s International Center for Performance Excellence, which houses FIT. She is also an editor of Crossing Boundaries: An International Anthology of Women’s Experiences in Sport.

Q: It was recently alleged by an Australian newspaper that the gender tests conducted on South Africa’s Caster Semenya revealed that she has both female and male sexual organs. If the report is true, how should the IAAF proceed?

Bandy: It seems that the IAAF must re-examine its policies concerning human rights, rights of privacy, and matters concerning gender, sexual identity, and sexuality as these pertain to sport.

Q: Does the IAAF already have policies in place regarding transgendered and transsexual athletes? Do other international federations, such as the International Olympic Committee (IOC), have existing guidelines in place?

Bandy: Yes, the IAAF has policies regarding transgendered and transsexual athletes as well as a position that “there will be no compulsory, standard, regular gender verification during IAAF sanctioned championships.” If suspicious cases or challenges occur, as was the case with Semenya, then the IAAF will investigate the matter. In 2004, the IOC instituted policies to allow these athletes to compete, and in 2007 the NCAA also instituted policies for transgendered and transsexual athletes.

Welcome to FIT’s new blog!

Welcome to Fitness Information Technology’s (FIT) new blog.  FIT is a premier publisher of books, journals, and digital products in the sport sciences.  FIT specializes in publishing products on the following topics:

• Sport Management
• Sport and Exercise Psychology
• Sport and Cultural Studies
• Physical Education
• Coaching Education

We plan to use this blog to discuss current, newsworthy sport-related topics with insight from some of FIT’s distinguished authors, who are some of the most highly acclaimed experts in their respective fields.